Analyze This

by PatWong

No, no, this is not about the movie starring Robert De Niro.

In one early summer afternoon, I was working in Walter Mok's  (D18 莫耀華) garage where he had arranged into an office much like  Steve Jobs and the other Steve did in Apple Computer's early days. All Lighters must know that Walter is a contemporary of Steve Chu, the 1977 Physics Nobel laureate, in their Berkeley days and had  enjoyed many coffee breaks with him in LeConte Hall while earning  his doctorate in Laser technology. Thus, Walter becomes a world  class scientist by osmosis. Peter Chang (C34 張侃) dropped by.  He just came back on his business trip from China. Peter said if  he is not traveling that week, he wouldn't feel productive. What  a life style! Walter was nice enough to setup a tea table in the  shade next to his rose garden in full bloom. We all took a much   deserved tea break.

We started by comparing notes about reserving air tickets to the Toronto reunion. Somehow the conversation turned to the departed  Lighters who can be at the reunion only in spirit. A first  observation was that, Fung Shiu-Yin (ABC 馮兆賢), Alan Cheung  (張大民), Lo Pak-Huen (盧伯暄), Wong Kowk-Quen (黃國權) and Hsu   Hint-Wing (F32 徐憲永) were all die of hepatitis or liver related  ailments. Alfonso Wong (A32 黃銘賢) had written an article to explain Wong Kowk-Quen's death. So we can keep him out of the
picture for now.

Secondly, the first three departed Lighters listed above were all  track-and-field supper stars. ABC and Alan in particular, and Lo  to a lesser extent. But then David Lin (D27 凌宏瑜) was also a  very series middle distant runner in those days and he is no where
close to departing! Hence the association is not specific.

Thirdly, the same three Lighters were all long term dormitory  residents in Pui Ching. But then Leung Kwun (C7 梁琨), Theodore  Hsieh (B32 謝天詒), Stanley Ching (D39 司徒政) and Tony Kwok  (B10 郭端) were also long term dormitory residents, yet they lived
on. Again, the association is not specific.

But if we combine the two factors together, that is, being a track- and-field supper star and a long term dormitory resident, only ABC,  Alan Cheung and Lo Pak-Huen fell through. They were precisely the three departed Lighters and they all die of hepatitis. Now the association becomes specific. Such a strong association would<BR>
suggest a causal relationship. In other words, it supports the hypothesis that being a track-and-field supper star and a long term Pui Ching dormitory resident would lead to dying in an early age with hepatitis.

Next we should investigate whether such strong association existed in the classes that were graduated from Pui Ching a year or two  earlier and later than us. If it only happened in our graduating  class, we must conclude that the strong association between these  factors and the die early outcome is nothing but a spurious one.   Otherwise, we must conclude that those were the causal factors. We must then look deeper into what actually caused such unfortunate  outcome. Perhaps the food they ate together with their training  method did damage to their livers. Perhaps my half hearted 
Biostatistic training is playing game on me.

Will somebody else analyze this?